Early view on RealClearPolitics.com

After briefly looking through Fox News’ website one day, I noticed that they use RealClearPolitics.com as a way of polling. I want it to be known that in no way do I trust Fox News Corps. I consider them to be a very manipulative and propagandist organization with egomaniacs giving us so called “fair and balanced” facts that tend to be more spun opinions then facts.

With that said, I have compared the results of RealClearPolitics.com polls to the actual vote tally in the states that have already voted. All of the data I am using are the overall averages of all the polls taken within those state. These are the main numbers that the site uses and I too feel this is the best way of observing the data. Bear in mind that these states do hold open primaries, meaning party affiliation does not affect the primary that you may vote, so this initial analysis will be skewed.

RCP.com for the Republicans seems to average a 2.37 differential from the polling data averages and the actual count as the data below shows. Please note the order of the candidates are in the order of the Michigan results and in no way reflect personal views.

Michigan

Poll Actual Difference
Romney 29 38.9 9.9
McCain 26.3 29.7 3.4
Hukabee 16.3 16.1 -0.2
Paul 5.8 6.3 .5
Thompson 5 3.7 -1.3
Giuliani 4.2 2.8 -1.4

Average(Absolute Value): 2.78


New Hampshire

Poll Actual Difference
Romney 28.2 31.5 3.3
McCain 31.8 37 5.2
Hukabee 12.2 11.2 -1
Paul 8.2 7.7 -0.5
Thompson 2.2 1.2 -1
Giuliani 9.3 8.5 -0.8

Average(Absolute Value): 1.97



Iowa

Poll Actual Difference
Romney 26.7 25.3 -1.4
McCain 11.8 13.1 1.3
Hukabee 29.7 34.3 4.6
Paul 7.3 10 2.7
Thompson 11.7 13.4 1.7
Giuliani 6 3.5 -2.5 2.37

Average(Absolute Value): 2.37


Overall Iowa matches the average difference of the three states. Do not draw any conclusions from the data because these states did hold open primaries and New Hampshire has begun a recount of the votes this morning. I will update these figures when the results of the New Hampshire recount flow in.

We all know how polls are rather worthless because of Frank Luntz. If you do not know who he is, see the video below. But these polls are what the news and political pundits are reporting on and people must be informed of any conflicting coverage or opinions.

-- Topher Lloyd